IGSD and NCAER Strategic Partnership to Study Economic Impacts of Arctic Sea Ice Melting on India
New Delhi / Washington DC, August 7, 2024 — The Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development (IGSD) and the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) today announced a new partnership to investigate the economic impacts of Arctic ice melt on India, its economy and global impact. This collaboration aims to leverage both organizations' expertise to deliver insights into the intersection of climate change and economic stability.
IGSD and NCAER will develop comprehensive economic models to assess how the Arctic changes, particularly with the loss of sea ice, affecting India's monsoon variability, directly impacting agricultural outputs in India, and its overall impact on the economic health of the country. The research will also explore the broader implications of the Northern Sea Route on global trade and the Indian economy.
Methane and other short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) significantly contribute to Arctic warming, with methane emissions anywhere impacting climate and health globally. IGSD's research has shown that reducing methane emissions by 45% by 2030 can avoid almost 0.3 °C of warming globally and 0.5 °C in the Arctic by the 2040s.
A detailed single-country multi-sector Computable General Equilibrium model for India will be done to quantify the impact of monsoon instability on agriculture, food security, and infrastructure. This will include running policy scenarios to understand the potential economic implications by mid-century. In addition, a global trade model will be developed to analyze the impact of the Northern Sea Route on India's economy, considering the effects of Arctic sea ice loss and its contribution to global warming.
Reducing methane and SLCP emissions is critical for mitigating these impacts, offering the fastest opportunity to slow warming by 2030 and improving the resilience of economies worldwide. Reducing methane and short-lived climate pollutants and understanding the intersection of Arctic ice melting-induced climate change and agro- and socio-economic stability is crucial for future planning and sustainability in line with SDG 13.
Durwood Zaelke, President of IGSD, stated, "this partnership represents a significant step forward in understanding the far-reaching impacts of Arctic changes. By combining our expertise, we aim to provide policymakers with the critical data they need to make informed decisions that protect the planet, as well as the economy."
Zerin Osho, Director of the India Program at IGSD, further added, “it is essential for India to understand the impact of loss of Arctic Sea Ice on its economy to understand the emerging role of Indian foreign policy in the protection of the Arctic to secure India’s long-term strategic interests. This will help India’s strategic position and ensure India’s path to becoming a true leader of the Global South.”
SanjibPohit, Professor and Lead Researcher for this study at NCAER, added, "the economic stability of India is intricately linked to climatic patterns. Our collaboration with IGSD will help us build robust models to predict and mitigate the adverse effects of climate change, particularly those stemming from Arctic ice melt, on our agriculture and economy."
About the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development:
IGSD works to ensure fast cuts to the non-carbon dioxide climate pollutants and other fast climate mitigation strategies to slow near-term warming and self-amplifying climate feedbacks, avoid or at least delay catastrophic tipping points, and limit global temperature rise. Its mission is to promote fast climate mitigation to slow near-term warming and self-propagating climate feedbacks, avoid or at least delay catastrophic climate and societal tipping points, and limit global temperatures to 1.5 °C—or at least keep this temperature guardrail in sight and limit overshoot.
About National Council of Applied Economic Research:
NCAER, the National Council of Applied Economic Research, is India’s oldest and largest independent economic think tank, set up in 1956 to inform policy choices for both the public and private sectors. Over the past 65 years, NCAER has served the nation well with its rich offering of applied policy research, unique data sets, evaluations, and policy inputs to Central and State governments, corporate India, the media, and the citizenry. It is one of a few independent think tanks worldwide that combines rigorous economic analysis and policy outreach with deep data collection capabilities, particularly for large-scale household surveys. NCAER is led by its Director General, Dr Poonam Gupta, and it is governed by an independent Governing Body currently chaired by Mr Nandan M. Nilekani.
For more information, contact Sunandini Seth, IGSD, +1 313 737 7769, sseth@igsd.org
